Global Gas Markets: Supply/Demand, Trade, Pricing
SAILING INTO UNKNOWN WATERS: WHERE NEXT FOR GLOBAL GAS TRADE AND PRICING?
The impact of the global economic recession on gas demand, gas trade and prices, has been dramatic over the last twelve months. In some sectors and countries gas demand has declined by more than 10% year-on-year. The sharp declines in spot gas prices and the increasing divergence from oil prices, is causing many in the industry to question again the role of oil indexation in long term contracts in Europe and Asia.
To address this uncertainty, Nexant’s new multi-client study, Sailing into Unknown Waters provides a comprehensive analysis of global gas markets, past, present and future, covering all aspects of international gas trade and pricing through to 2030.
Using a scenario approach the study looks at three possible outcomes:
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Will we see renewed growth in demand with adequate supply and infrastructure resulting in reasonable price levels
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Or, is the longer-term horizon for the gas sector going to be dominated by over supply in a declining market maybe leading to lower gas prices?
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Alternatively, will demand for gas continue to increase against a background of delayed projects and constrained supply , leading to sharp increases in gas prices?
Each of the three scenarios is described in detail with assumptions on gas supply capability, potential demand and existing and future infrastructure being described in detail and on a regional basis, highlighting the key interactions. Finally, the results across each of these scenarios are compared and overall conclusions are drawn from the analysis.
Sailing into Unknown Waters takes a long-term strategic view of the global gas market and conclusions of the study suggest that we may be entering a New World Order for Gas.
For more information, please contact one of the following:
Dr. Mostefa Ouki, Vice President, Energy Resources & Head of Global Gas, Nexant, Tel: +44 207 950 1580, Email: maouki@nexant.com or Mike Fulwood, Principal, Global Gas, Nexant, Tel: +44 207 950 1591, Email: mfulwood@nexant.com.
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©2009 Nexant, Inc.
